Climate change, especially global warming affect s every aspects of the environment, social structure, and food security. The zagros region due to its rugged nature and diverse climate is very vulnerable to climate change such as temperature warming and rainfall decrease. In order to unclose the signs of climate change in the Zagros region, the existing monthly rainfall, rain days, mean, low and high temperatures of 26 stations in the region were studied. These stations had data with different durations ranging from 17 to 55 years. The normality of the time series were tested via lobly force, and their trend with Ljung-Box and Mankendal Tau. The degree and sign of the trend were tested by correlation coefficient.The results did not show any significant trend in the rainfall series. But the mean low temperature and daily temperature range showed significant trend. More than 90 percent of the stations showed significant increasing trend in the minimum temperature. While the daily range showed both increasing and decreasing trends.

ABSTRACT Today, climate change and its obvious negative effects on ecosystems have caused concern. This research seeks to test whether vegetation changes are sensitive to climate shocks and also how the ecosystem recovery process is through this index. In this regard, by using the GEE platform, Java coding, GIS and statistical analysis, vegetation and Palmer indices were calculated and based on time series climate data, vegetation and climate changes were presented. The results of Palmer's drought index show that during the statistical period (1985-2020) the study area is facing drought or is moving towards drought. Also, the results indicate the longest period of drought in the region from 2013 to 2020. Totaly from 420 evaluated months, the NDVI index is below the change threshold in 70 months. Among these, 31 months of the study period is below the acceptable threshold in green and non-reservoir seasons, which is ecologically worrying. The distribution of the vegetation index based on hexagons in 1985 and 2005 had a normal and almost normal distribution; But in 2020, the graph deviated from the normal state and skewed towards the vegetation cover index under stress or even thin covers. According to the analysis of the indicators, it is predicted that the Gorgan region is on the border of such ecological developments and the historical ecosystem of the region is moving towards new ecosystems or being in a new equilibrium state with climatic conditions and human disturbances Extended Abstract Introduction Today, climate change and its obvious negative effects on terrestrial ecosystems have caused great concern to humans. These changes are effective on vegetation performance, plant distribution patterns, and have economic and environmental consequences. Therefore, it is important to know the behavioral pattern of vegetation changes against climate changes. Reviewing the studies of scientists in the world shows many researchers have used the NDVI index to study temporal and spatial changes in vegetation and its relationship with the climatic index of precipitation in different parts of the world. Studies have shown that NDVI follows precipitation with different time scales. Surveys showed that there are very few studies on determining the threshold of changes in the vegetation cover index in the face of climate shocks. Determining these thresholds can provide a suitable solution for evaluating the state of the ecosystem, the consequences of climate shocks and the reversibility or disturbance in the ecosystem. This study was conducted with the aim of improving our understanding of the dynamics of vegetation in the forest city of Gorgan during 1985-2020 against climatic stresses.   Methodology The current research is a comparative and monitoring research and seeks to test whether changes in vegetation cover are sensitive to climate shocks and also how the ecosystem recovery process is through this index. To achieve the gole, first, NDVI index was selected among the optimal vegetation indices and its calculation process was done as a time series in the GEE system. In parallel with those climate shocks, the main elements including temperature, precipitation and storm were calculated during the historical process of 35 years and the average and standard deviation statistical indicators were calculated for them and the trend of changes in the thresholds was determined. The results of climate plots and climate changes show that in the years before 1985, 2005 and 2020, drastic changes have occurred in climatic elements and climatic factors. Therefore, these years can be considered as the periods when the climate shock happened.. Next, the region was divided into 436 hexagons and the NDVI index for each of the hexagons was calculated and modeled for the years 1985, 2005 and 2020 as selected years affected by climate shocks. In conclusion, to analyze the trend of changes in the time series of the vegetation index and compare the behavior of its changes with climatic indices, the Palmer index was calculated.   Results and discussion The results of climate change monitoring based on the Palmer index showed that during the statistical period the study area is facing drought in most years. The most severe climatic fluctuations and drought in the region were recorded in 2018 and in the months of October to December. The longest period of drought has also prevailed in the region from 2013 to 2020. During this period, rainfall, temperature and storm fluctuations have the most changes. The results of drought monitoring show that in 270 months, the region is facing climatic drought stress, 57 months of the study period, the region is facing severe and very severe drought stress. The results of the time series of the NDVI vegetation index showed that, out of the 420 evaluated months, 70 months of the year the NDVI index is below the change threshold, 31 of which are in the green and non-accumulating seasons, the seasons when the vegetation is expected to be at its maximum. Placing below the acceptable range means crossing the ecological thresholds and challenges the recovery and restoration of the ecosystem, also the ecological performance will be affected at this point. Based on the assessment of the Palmer index, from 2014 to 2019, the situation of the Palmer index is in the extreme drought range. Also, since 2015, i.e. with a one-year time delay, NDVI index has experienced the lower limit of the equilibrium threshold of vegetation cover. These conditions are also valid for the years 2008, 2009, 2002 and 1997. In general, it can be said that the vegetation cover index is dependent on climatic changes and fluctuations and shows high sensitivity to changes. The important point in this section is that in the years when the NDVI index changes are at the lower limit of the threshold, we witness the most climate shocks and temperature changes, the occurrence of severe storms and precipitation fluctuations. The distribution of the vegetation index based on hexagons in 1985 and 2005 have a normal distribution; but in 2020, the graph has deviated from the normal state and skewed towards the vegetation cover index under stress or even thin covers. The visual interpretation done on the vegetation cover index in 1985 confirms the condition of the vegetation cover in the southern and western limits of the region in a state with suitable dense and pasture vegetation and forest cover on the edges. However, in 2005 and 2020, this cover has been changed and mainly turned into agricultural land and poor rangeland. In such a way that in 2020, the situation of the region has revealed the critical state of vegetation. The vegetation cover index in the central areas of the city has also reached from a relatively favorable situation in 1985 to a critical situation with almost no dense and stress-free vegetation cover in 2020. The results of the present studies are consistent with the studies of Visentr Serrano et al. in 2013 and confirm the relationship between NDVI vegetation and climate change. In addition, the results of the studies are consistent with the studies of Alwesabi 2012, Xiai & Moody, 2005 and Yan et al. 2001. In such a way that the present study and the aforementioned studies all confirm the influence of the vegetation index on climate fluctuations and precipitation with a one-year time difference.       Conclusion In general, the threshold is defined as a border with different conditions. After crossing the thresholds, the stability and positioning of the NDVI in the equilibrium range is often difficult, and the ecosystem is constantly spending energy to restore itself or to position itself in a new stability state. The result of the mentioned disorders is the reduction of resilience and resistance in the region, which leads the ecosystem to alternative states or crossing the threshold or being in a new equilibrium state. The results showed that the areas where green vegetation is concentrated and denser are less affected by climatic stresses and show more resilience. However, the areas that have become spots and islands due to destruction in the urban areas are more affected by climatic stress and destruction and show less tolerance against the destruction factors. The results help managers to focus their management plans for the preservation and maintenance of urban green spaces as well as forest and pasture ecotones on the edge of the city by knowing the thresholds.   Funding There is no funding support.   Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.   Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.   Acknowledgments  We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.

Introduction: As proven by some researches, the atmosphere’ s general circulation models (GCMs) well predict the temporal and special variations in climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation at a global scale. However, although these models can simulate the global climate in a three-dimensional grid for the whole world, the resolution of their images cannot display the details of the climate changes at regional scale. Therefore, to predict climate changes at regional and regional scales, downscaling tools are needed to be developed. This study, thus, sought to investigate the variations of temperature and precipitation in future periods in a semi-arid region in Iran. Materials and methods: To conduct this study, the Kermanshah province with average annual precipitation of 402. 27 mm and mean temperature of 15. 9° C was selected. To investigate the future climate change, we need a base period as an evidence or reference (1961-2005). The data used in this study were collected from station observations based on the required output and large-scale data NCEP and GCM gained from the nearest global network to the study area. To estimate the future periods’ temperature and precipitation data, the GCM model of the CanESM2 was applied under three scenarios including RCP 2. 6, RCP 4. 5 and RCP 8. 5, and SDSM 4. 2. 9 model was used in this regard for downscaling the output data. The SDSM is a multivariate regression model for the production of climatic data via statistical downscaling techniques, seeking to generate high-resolution climatic data from GCM’ s large-scale simulations data. This model is used when rapid and low-cost estimation of the climate is required. Results: This study evaluated the model’ s performance in predicting climatic parameters based on R2, RMSE, and NS. As confirmed by the results of RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5 and, RCP8. 5, the values regarding the climatic parameters were modeled with acceptable accuracy. However, precipitation prediction was less accurate than temperature which could be attributed to the inaccuracy of the precipitation data and their unconditional nature. The study’ s results showed that the annual mean temperature values in the period 2020-2049 under RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 increased by 0. 6, 0. 7, and 0. 9° C, respectively, compared to the base period. Moreover, the investigation of the prospective temperature changes in 2050-2069 period under the above-mentioned scenarios suggested that the temperature would increase throughout the year except in September, October, November, and December. The highest increase would occur in June by 6. 6° C under RCP8. 5, and the lowest increase would happen in October by 4° C under RCP2. 6 scenario. Furthermore, the annual mean temperature values would increase by 0. 8, 1. 4 and 2. 4° C in 2050-2069 under RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios compared to the base period, respectively. It was also found that the temperature would increase in all season but autumn throughout 2070-2099, with the annual mean temperature values getting increased by 4, 1. 9 and 4° C, respectively, under RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5, and, RCP8. 5 scenarios. Precipitation values and its variations in 2020-2049 period indicated that the highest decrease in precipitation value would occur in March by 38. 2 mm under RCP2. 6 scenario and the highest increase in this parameter would occur in October by 127. 5 mm. Moreover, the annual mean precipitation rata would be 6. 4 mm lower in 2020– 2049 period than the observed value based on RCP2. 6 scenario, and it would increase by 2. 6 mm in the same period under the RCP4. 5 scenario compared to the baseline period, and it would decrease by 2. 6 mm under RCP8. 5 scenario. Precipitation values for the period 2050-2069 show that the highest decrease in precipitation in March was 38. 3 mm under RCP2. 6 and the highest increase in October to 127. 5 mm under RCP4. 5. Furthermore, according to the annual mean precipitation values for 2050-2069 period, it was found that the highest decrease in precipitation rate would occur in March by 38. 3 mm under the RCP2. 6 scenario, and its highest increase would occur in October by 127. 5 mm under RCP4. 5 scenario. Also, the annual precipitation rate in 2050-2069 period would increase by 2. 6 mm and 4. 2 mm under RCP8. 5 and RCP4. 5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the observation period, and it would decrease by 4. 9 mm under the RCP2. 6 scenario compared to the baseline period. The results of the precipitation rate for 2070-2099 period showed that the highest decrease would occur in March by 48. 1 mm under the RCP2. 6 scenario, and the highest increase would occur in September by 129. 5 mm under the RCP8. 5 scenario. Moreover, in 2070-2099 period, the average annual precipitation values would decrease by 0. 6 and 7. 4 mm under RCP2. 6 and RCP4. 5 scenarios, respectively, and it would increase by 7. 8 mm under the RCP8. 5 scenario compared to the base period. Discussion and Conclusion: The climate changes observed in the 20th and 21st centuries are incompatible with those of the past millennium. Arid and semi-arid regions are extremely vulnerable to climate changes. Therefore, identifying and comprehending the relationship between climate variables, and knowing their future changes are important for sustainable and efficient management of resources in such areas. According to studies conducted in this regard, climate change will inevitably occur in Iran. On the other hand, one of the most important issues in dealing with climate change in recent decades has been susceptibility to the climate changes. The investigation of the trends of the climatic data recorded in last decades, and the outputs of all climate models that predict future climates indicate that undeniable changes would occur in global climate. To conduct this study, the daily temperature and precipitation data of Kermanshah province’ s synoptic station were used. However, non-conditional data presented more acceptable results. The study’ s findings showed that in 2020-2049 period, the precipitation rate increased under RCP4. 5 scenario compared to the observation period (1961-2005), and it increased in the same period under the RCP2. 6 and RCP8. 5 scenarios. It was also found that in 2050– 2069 period, the precipitation rate decreased under RCP2. 6 scenario compared to the observation period (1961– 2005), and increased under RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios. Generally, it could be argued that the precipitation rate would increase in this period. Moreover, it could be said that the precipitation rate would be decreasing throughout the 2070-2099 period compared to the observation period, and temperature would experience an increasing trend during 2020-2049, 2050-2069, and 2070-2099 periods compared to the observed period. As indicated by the results, the Kermanshah province’ s climatic conditions in the prediction period would considerably differ from the current situation, suggesting serious changes in the region’ s climate status. Therefore, getting aware of the direct and indirect negative effects of the climate on different parts of the region and developing long– term strategic plans are necessary for dealing with such conditions.

The study of climate, as an important water and soil controlling factor, is" significant. However, climate plays an important role in plant distribution. For this, meteorological information are important for agricultrual decision making. Agricultural especialists in short and long terms, need atmospheric information in making decisions. Climatic elements effect on soyabeans crop from seeding cultivation to harvesting is important. Soyabeans cultivation in spring farm begins on last May, but in summer farm after wheat harvesting. Hill and Sahar are two important varieties in the area study. Soyabeans harvesting, depending on early and late harvest varieties, begins on middle of October. The statistical data analysis on soyabeans harvesting during 15 years and water crop requirements showed that there is correlation between crop yield and water crop requirements. Also, deeply soil clay and sand humus have provided cultivation condition in regional plain.

Introduction Changes in the global climate have become one of the most crucial challenges facing agriculture in the twenty-first century. Climatic change is mainly characterized by a rise in greenhouse gas emissions and global average temperature as well as changes in precipitation levels and patterns. Undoubtedly, these changes affect the growth and productivity of agricultural production, and thus food security in many parts of the world like Iran. At present, supplying sufficient food and meeting food security in Iran relies on the management of climatic variables that affect agricultural production. Therefore, it is necessary to study the effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security in arid and semi-arid regions of this country such as the Khorasan region. Given the importance of this issue, the objective of the current study is to investigate climate change and its impacts on the yield and yield risk of selected crops, as well as on food security in the Khorasan region. Materials and Method The daily observed data for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation is provided from the Meteorological Organization of Iran for 1961–, 2010. The daily reanalysis data for the period (1961–, 2005) are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The large-scale daily predictors for the CanESM2 model were developed by the CCCma for selected station. These data are used to predict climate parameters under three climatic scenarios (RCP 2. 6, RCP 4. 5 and 8. 5) for 2030. This study used SDSM to downscale GCM-CanESM2 outputs. SDSM model, one of the most widely used models in the world, is applied to downscale future climate projections using the 26 predictors derived from a large-scale climate model. In the current study, a production function technique developed by Just and Pope is applied to investigate the effects of climate variables on the mean and variance of crop yields. This technique consists of two parts: the first component is relating to the yield levels and the second part is related to the yield variance. Results and discussion The results showed that maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation have a significant impact on the yield of the studied crops, so these factors will lead to a decrease in the production of irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and dryland barley in 2030 compared to the base year. Findings indicate that per capita availability of wheat will decrease from 148. 22 to 104. 44, 107. 51, 109. 83 and for barley will decrease from 74. 28 to 47. 94, 54. 19, 62. 79, and for potato will change from 26. 44 to 25. 37, 25. 53, and 27. 24 (kg per person) under climate scenarios RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5, respectively. In addition, the results show that climate change in 2030 will reduce the production of irrigated wheat, barley, and rain-fed barley, while these changes will improve the production of potatoes and rain-fed wheat. Furthermore, the findings of the study reveal that the improvement of technology will be able to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the production of vulnerable products. Also, due to population growth in this region as well as climate change, the per capita availability of crops in 2030 will decrease, which will increase the dependence of this region on other regions of the country and imports to meet food needs. Suggestion The results recommend that location-specific adaptation strategies be considered to mitigate the decrease in the yield of irrigated wheat, barley and rain-fed barley crops, and meet food security in the presence of climatic change. Investing in technology (new crop varieties, development irrigation coverage, and increased use of fertilizer) can be considered as an effective policy to reduce the negative effects of climate change on crop production. In addition, supporting population control and climate change mitigation policies can help achieve food security in Iran.

Introduction Extended Tourism is one of the most important alternatives for developing societies. In addition to the economic benefits of tourism, the local communities achieve sustainable development through social and cultural benefit. Experiences of different regions in tourism development indicate that local communities should be the centres of planning and activities related to tourism. Today, rural areas are none developed and developing countries encounter several economic problems including poverty and unemployment. All development activities in these areas should lead to solve or reduce the mentioned problems. In recent years, there have been several tourism programs with entrepreneurial approaches, which have been designed and implemented. Tourism and entrepreneurship are placed among youth issues in scientific world. Undoubtedly, the appropriate integration of tourism and entrepreneurship can meet the needs of villagers in addition to ensure safety and optimal excursion for tourists. For applying entrepreneurial activity in a community, essential backgrounds and infrastructures should to be provided. Nowadays, this concept is called "entrepreneurial climate”. Entrepreneurial environment that includes all elements for an entrepreneurial business in a community is needed too.

Background and Objective: One of the major impacts on climate changes is change in extreme precipitation regime in the future, which have to be predicted to counteract the harmful effects of climate change. In this paper, climate change impact is assessed on extreme rainfalls in arid regions of Iran. Method: Future scenarios are downscaled using the NSRP model. Long-term daily rainfall series are generated for current climate and future scenarios. By comparing the distribution of extreme daily rainfalls for current and future conditions, the impacts of climate change on extreme rainfalls are assessed. In downscaling method, a wide range of statistics of large-scale scenarios has been transferred to downscaled scenarios. The understudying stations are in Bam, Zahedan, Tehran and Yazd synoptic stations as representatives of the arid regions of Iran. Findings: Validation results indicate that the performance of this method in simulating daily rainfall series and distribution of extreme rainfall is acceptable. Results for most of stations and scenarios show that intensity of extreme daily rainfalls will increase in the future while average rainfall will decrease. As instance, in Yazd, extreme rainfall of 50 years return period would increase between 14 to 58 percent, while the average precipitation will change between +3 to-20 percent. Discussion and Conclusion: These results indicate that the precipitation situation in arid areas of Iran will worsen in the future. Therefore, more extensive investments and taking preventive activities to adapt to climate change is essential.

We conducted this study in the Agogo Traditional Area of the Ashanti region of Ghana where there are numerous cases of conflicts between crop and animal farmers as a result of insufficient pasture for livestock, especially during the dry seasons. This has drawn the attention of various stakeholders in agriculture to the need for supplement feed through pasture establishment. The study examines farmers’ perception and the financial viability of pasture establishment for small ruminant production. The specific objectives of the study are as follow: to identify the cost and returns for the establishment of an acre of pasture, to assess the financial viability of pasture establishment on ‘cut and sell’ basis, to investigate farmers’ perception of pasture establishment for cattle production, to conduct a SWOT analysis of the establishment of pasture in Agogo. The study purports to analyze in detail, farmers' perceptions about the nature of the proposed 'Fodder Bank' policy and its likely effect on crop and livestock production, and whether the proposed policy could generate adequate monetary returns to induce its adoption at the farm level. The study seeks to provide evidence in support of SDG goals 2 (Zero hunger) and 12 (Responsible consumption and production) of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. To the authors' best of knowledge, this is envisage to provide valuable information to support policy initiatives intended to tackle the root cause of farmer-herder conflicts. The Asante Akim North Municipal is one of the 27 administrative Districts in the Ashanti Region. Its capital is Konongo- Odumasi. The population for this study comprises livestock and crop farmers in Agogo. Asante Akim North Municipal was purposively selected for the study because it is noted for its agrarian abilities and massive production of food in the Ashanti region. The multi stage sampling was employed in this study. At the first stage, Asante Agogo traditional area was selected purposively due to the fact that majority of the inhabitants engage in agricultural activities (GSS 2010). At the second stage, three communities in Agogo namely, Hwidiem, Ananekrom and Bebuso were selected purposively. At the third stage, quota sampling was used to obtain a specific number of farmers from each of the three communities to sum up to 150 respondents as shown in table. Simple random sampling technique was then used to engage the selected farmers in these communities. A sample size of 150 respondents were obtained using the Slovin’s formulae which is a scientific method of obtaining the sample size for a given population. Structured questionnaires consisting of open and close ended questions were used to gather primary data from respondents through face-to-face interviews. Interviews were conducted using the local dialect mostly to enhance communication and to clear all language barriers but English was used where the respondents could give accurate answers in English Language. Data per the questionnaires from respondents were concerning their perception of pasture establishment and the assessment of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of pasture establishment. Secondary data was sought from books, journals, dissertations and the internet. Useful and relevant information on the appropriate materials and their costs for establishing pasture was also obtained from the Agogo MoFA office, and the KNUST Department of Animal Science. Descriptive statistics such as percentages, tables and means were used to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of respondents. It was revealed in the study that majority of crop farmers have had their crops destroyed by ruminants especially cattle at least once. Additionally, the study showed that pasture establishment is one way through which crop farms destruction by livestock can be prevented as about 99% of farmers responded in the affirmative. The results for the financial viability of the venture under the assumptions used gave relevant results with BCR of 1.18 and NPV of GHC 3,160. The Internal Rate Return of the venture is estimated at 40.1% and a Pay Back period of 2.61 years. Therefore, it will be economically prudent for investors to commit resources towards establishing pasture. The perception index for commercial, economic and financial concerns of pasture establishment was 3.7 which is skewed toward agree. The statement that had the highest positive perception index was about the fact that pasture establishment will increase the quality of meat. This implies that respondents perceive that the commercial, economic and financial results of pasture establishment will be positive. The perception index for the social category was 3.66. The statement with the highest positive assertion by respondents is the fact that pasture establishment will help control the movement of animals. The perception index of 3.66 which is skewed towards agree means that pasture establishment will attract the support from the community and also bring more benefits to the society. In the category of technical concerns of pasture establishment, the overall perception index for this category is 3.15, which means that the respondents perceive they have a fair technical know- how concerning pasture establishment even though the venture requires technical know-how. In the category of institutional concerns, support and involvement in pasture establishment, the statement with the highest perception index is that MoFA will support farmers with the necessary resources in its capacity. With reference to the chi-square test, the study can conclude that there is a significant relationship between the type of farmer and the perception that support can be drawn from farmer-based associations, and the perception that pasture establishment will increase livestock production as well as the general sales of farmers. Lastly, the study revealed that there is a significant relationship between the educational background of the farmer and the perception that it is not difficult to select planting materials for pasture establishment. Farmers in Asante Akim Agogo should adopt the establishment of pasture since it is financially viable. The establishment of pasture in Asante Akim Agogo should be encouraged since it has the potency to reduce the farmer - herder conflicts and ensure food security. For successful pasture establishment, technical know-how is essential.